Will NASCAR’s Increased Safety Efforts Increase Accidents?
NASCAR launches Car of Tomorrow this month; Local expert predicts an increase in accidents
When NASCAR debuts the Car of Tomorrow at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 25, Todd Nesbit, an avid NASCAR fan and assistant professor of economics at Penn State Erie, The Behrend College, will be busy counting the number of accidents—and how many of those drivers walk away without a scratch.
In 2006, Nesbit and Russell Sobel, professor of economics at West Virginia University, produced a study that explored how drivers react to having cars so safe that they can generally walk away with no injuries after crashing into a concrete wall or another car at a very high rate of speed.
“Based on results of our study, we would project that drivers will drive more recklessly and take more risks while driving the Car of Tomorrow,” Nesbit said. “Initially, there will be a learning curve for everyone, which will likely increase the number of accidents as drivers and crews get used to the vehicles. Once the learning curve has passed, we predict that the new normal rate of crashes will be higher than it is currently because of the response to additional safety features on the Car of Tomorrow.”
The study, “Automobile safety regulation and the incentive to drive recklessly: Evidence from NASCAR,” shows that NASCAR drivers, in fact, do drive more recklessly in response to the increased safety of their vehicles. However, even with an increase in accidents, there is a reduction in total injuries—because the increase in riskier driving is not enough to offset the benefits from an increase in safety features.
Unlike studies about reckless street-driving and safety improvements among consumers, Sobel and Nesbit’s results are based on individual human responses to safety improvements within a well-controlled environment—because NASCAR only allows those drivers whose automobiles pass a pre-race inspection to participate.
“We were essentially able to test how the same drivers, on the same tracks and in the same weather conditions alter their behavior in response to changes in automobile safety,” Nesbit explained.
NASCAR had three primary objectives in developing the Car of Tomorrow—driver safety, improved performance and competition, and more efficient cost-management for teams.
The Car of Tomorrow’s safety features are of primary significance and of the greatest interest to Nesbit. They include the following.
-- The car is 4 inches wider and 2 inches taller than current NASCAR race cars.
-- The driver compartment, or “roll cage,” has shifted 3 inches to the rear.
-- The driver’s seat has shifted 4 inches to the right, allowing more protection from a driver’s side impact.
-- More “crush-ability” is built into the car on both sides, ensuring even more protection.
-- The exhaust system is another safety innovation—it runs through the body, diverting heat away from the driver and exiting on the right side.
Nesbit also noted the potential financial impact that the Car of Tomorrow could have on teams.
“While additional safety is beneficial in terms of driver safety, primarily with a reduction in injuries, it also may reduce the profitability of the teams,” Nesbit said. “NASCAR promises that the Car of Tomorrow will reduce the cost of building the cars. For example, production will become more streamlined and the teams will not have to build specialized cars for each track, which is a costly process.
“However, these cost advantages may be offset by the increased number of accidents and the need to rebuild damaged cars as a result,” he added.
Modern safety standards in NASCAR are far removed from the early days of racing in the 1950s when race cars were supercharged street cars with no special safety features. Today’s race cars include roll cages, five-point harnesses, window nets, Lexan windshields, special fuel cells, roof flaps and—in response to the death of seven-time NASCAR champion Dale Earnhardt in the 2001 Daytona 500—NASCAR now mandates the use of an approved head-and-neck restraint system. Earnhardt was the fourth NASCAR driver killed since May 2000.
After consulting with team owners, NASCAR planned to use the Car of Tomorrow in 16 events this year, 26 in 2008, and for the full 36-event schedule in 2009. This timeline is under debate as some want to have the car used for the full schedule in 2008, while others, such as Hendricks Motorsports driver Jeff Gordon, see a litany of challenges with an accelerated schedule.
Sobel and Nesbit’s study has been accepted for publication in the Southern Economic Journal. For a copy, please contact Suzanne Scarpino at sms299@psu.edu.
Penn State Erie, The Behrend College, is a comprehensive residential college offering 31 baccalaureate, six associate, four pre-professional and two graduate degree programs with 21 minors to more than 4,000 students. Focused on providing a student-centered environment, Penn State Behrend is the link that connects its students to a major research and land-grant institution on a campus enriched by more than 110 clubs and organizations, 21 NCAA varsity teams, 19 intramural sports and modern facilities. For more information, visit www.behrend.psu.edu.